BREXIT and the Left Behind

The European Union or commonly referred to as the EU is an economic and political union of European states, with its de facto capital Brussels. The founding stones for the European Union were laid on 1ST Nov 1993, Maastricht, Netherlands.  The EU is governed by chimerical institutions and intergovernmental negotiated decisions of the member states.  The EU traces its ancestry from the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) and the European Economic Community (EEC). Over a period of 60 years, EU has achieved a lot but Brexit is the greatest disaster to befall the European Union.

Brexit has become a shorthand way of saying the UK leaving the EU- merging the words Britain and Exit to get BREXIT. Article 50 of the Treaty OF Lisbon confers any EU member with the right to quit unilaterally and also outlines the procedure for doing so. The article moreover formulates the procedure for the leaving country, two years to negotiate an exit deal and once it is set in motion it can't be stopped except by a unanimous consent of all member states. The Lisbon Treaty is looked upon as a law that is designed to make the EU "more Democratic, more efficient and more transparent".

The story of Brexit, however, doesn't begin with a polling card. Neither does it start with David Cameron's manifesto promise in 2015. But the roots can be traced to the speech made by Winston Churchill at the end of the Second World War. He advocated a peace project, ‘a kind of a United States of Europe'. And this was set in motion when France and Germany came together to form the European Coal and Steel Community in 1951; six years later this was known as the European Economic Community. The most powerful of the various Europeans community, ratified by the 1975 Treaty of Rome.

Britain first attempted to attain membership in 1961 but was vetoed by France. It was only in 1973 that Edward Heath finally succeeded in securing a British Membership. Many members of the British leadership had been vocally uncertain about the European project for years, and when the Labour Party won the 1974 elections Prime minister Harold Wilson called a referendum on Britain's membership. This was held in 1975 and elicited a resounding majority of staying put with the European Union.

In June 2016, when the UK voted by referendum to ‘Leave' the EU, majorities in Scotland and Northern Irelands voted to ‘Remain', but the total UK ‘Leave' vote was about 52%.  Hence, article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty confers UK to leave EU and sets out a formulated procedure to exit the European Union. For one to understand the Brexit one must simply understand that the history behind the Brexit is not merely influenced by a single event or date but rather an act of ascendancy of ideas, and the development of concept crucial to the functioning of British and European Democracy.

Brexit and the geopolitics behind it: Brexit is a momentous event that has taken place in its 60 – year history of Europe and from now on the narrative will be one of disintegration, not integration. This doesn't imply to the fact that EU will fall asunder or even to the fact any other member state will leave EU. The Brexit vote started a period of hesitancy which could hit trade, finance, investment and business in the UK harder than much forecasted. Not only are the overall economic reverberation of the Brexit for the United Kingdom difficult to foretell but one can also count the days until there is a Scotish referendum for Independence followed by a referendum by the Northern Ireland on leaving the United Kingdom.

From this day on many might direct Brexit as a Black cloud in contemporary British history, as one wonders as to what exactly the Brexit vote will, in the end, mean for the European Union. Many scholars have been vocal in raising the grave effects of the exit for the UK as a Major European power bids farewell to the EU. The European integration has,  over the last 6 decades has been a dialectical process full of ups and downs, however, in the end, these calamities tend to deeply integrate the union.

Britain is today, as many would say, turning into a kind of political guinea-pig. If the state fails after the exit, its possibly sad fate will, in coming years, illustrate to the masses of many European Union member countries the grave effects of leaving the EU. Brexit is not to be seen as an event but rather a process of many-layered negotiations that may well stretch out beyond 2020. A post-Brexit Britain will have to form a set of revised institutional and trading relations with EU members.

Even though the shock waves from the Brexit have yet to be absorbed by the world, the landmarks of global security have already been reshaped. With this, Brexit has to lead the EU into a number of Geo-Political consequences. Brexit completely transformed the tenor of the NATO summit in Warsaw. The main motive behind this summit was to shore up the alliance's response to a resurging Russia in the east and to demonstrate that the European solidarity counters the actions of Kremlin. Brexit is the latest manifestation in the developed world of the growing divide between the business elite committed to globalization and the politicians.

It is often termed as the "Narrative Collapse" whereby a country's international engagement is seen disconnected from the interests of the "average citizen". Besides this in the wake of the Brexit, scholars have realized the threat to regional stability, global security, and various other humanitarian crises. The 1992 Treaty on EU is prominent for its eventual creation of a single currency namely the "EURO". But what a few cherish is the fact that it also establishes precedents for a common judicial cooperation, security pact and a freedom of transit policies thus forming EU as an endeavour to attain regional growth and stability, which is rather a gamble in today's time.

The consequence of UK leaving the EU: Firstly, apart from a short-term hit to the Britain's economy, the first consequence shall one of a political fallout. As seen on the vote to leave EU, David Cameron announced his resignation from the prime ministership of the Britain.

Secondly, a Brexit will make the prevalent financial market more susceptible to the vulnerabilities of the 19 nation Eurozone. As one can already see the repercussion of the same, sterling has dropped to a 30 year low. 

Thirdly, anti-establishment political movements, notably far-right parties in western Europe, will take inspiration from Brexit. Hence it might grow in strength and emerge as the one to influence government's action. Immigration policy will be a case in point.

Fourthly, the Brexit will derange the EU's internal equilibrium. With Britain on the out, EU’s economic output shall fall nearly by half. Thus, leading to an increased political and economic supremacy of Germany in the EU, a prospect that neither Berlin nor its partners would welcome.

Overall the Brexit shall harm the EU's cohesion, confidence, and international reputation. The biggest consequence of all, therefore, is that Brexit will wear away the liberal political and economic order for which the UK, the EU and their allies and friends around the world stand.Moreover, things can get worse if we take into account the very fact that the dynamic effects of a reduction in cross-border trade activities. less trade insinuates less pressure from international competition. Hence, companies have no incentive to enhance their productivity through investment and innovation. And a lower increase in productivity shall result in a reduced long-term rate of economic growth.

 From all of the above, we can settle for the fact that a Brexit would have damaging effects on the economic development in the entire EU. Apart from these, there shall also be severe political damage and would weaken Europe geopolitically. As a result of which one would enter in a standstill wherein there will only be losers and no winners.

Written By:

Manubhav Sharma

III Year

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in the article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of the Blog.